Dallin Overstreet
PhD · State & Local Public Finance and Fiscal Federalism
I study how the financial architecture of intergovernmental programs shapes their solvency, with a focus on state unemployment insurance trust funds. My work combines econometric evaluation with interactive tools that make policy data usable.
Education
PhD, Public Policy & Administration
M.P.P.
B.A., Economics
Research Focus
State and local public finance and fiscal federalism, with an emphasis on unemployment insurance financial governance and program solvency.
Recent work extends to intergovernmental policy diffusion and computational text analysis.
Selected Recognition
Dissertation Fellowship
Frederic Bastiat Fellowship
PoliMetrics
A newsletter on public finance and policy, built from original data analysis.
Read the latestAbout
Public finance researcher working on the fiscal architecture of intergovernmental programs.
Biography
I completed my PhD in Public Administration and Policy at Arizona State University's School of Public Affairs in 2025, following an M.P.P. and a B.A. in economics from the same institution.
My research asks why programs financed jointly by federal and state governments so often drift toward insolvency. Unemployment insurance is the central case: states set their own tax and benefit parameters inside a federal framework, and the resulting incentives determine whether trust funds are ready for the next recession. My dissertation traced how states diverged in rebuilding those funds after the Great Recession, and whether the 2010 federal reform actually improved solvency.
Related strands of my work examine how fiscal and geographic factors drive policy diffusion across local governments, and how institutions use rhetoric to preserve costly commitments over long periods. Alongside the academic work, I build interactive tools that make public policy data tractable for people who are not statisticians, and write PoliMetrics, a newsletter of original data analysis.
Methods
- Difference-in-differences and event-study designs
- Survival analysis and hazard models
- Time series analysis and forecasting
- Computational text analysis and applied NLP
- Interactive application development in R
Teaching & Research Experience
Graduate Research Assistant and Course Instructor
Fellowships & Honors
Dissertation Fellowship
Frederic Bastiat Fellowship in Political Economy
Summa Cum Laude
Research
Peer-reviewed work on public finance, fiscal federalism, and the institutions that govern intergovernmental programs.
Research Interests
- State and local public finance — trust fund management and fiscal sustainability
- Fiscal federalism — intergovernmental finance and policy coordination
- Unemployment insurance — financial governance and program solvency
- Policy diffusion — how fiscal capacity and geography shape local adoption
- Applied econometrics — causal evaluation, forecasting, and computational text analysis
Publications
Full list also available on Google Scholar.
Journal Articles
Path-Dependent Fiscal Adjustment: Divergent State Strategies in Post-Recession UI Trust Fund ManagementNew
Overstreet, D. (2026). Public Finance Review. Advance online publication.
Geographic Networks, Fiscal Incentives, and Coercive Federalism: Policy Diffusion of 287(g) Immigration Enforcement AgreementsNew
Overstreet, D. (2026). Public Administration Quarterly. doi:10.1177/07349149261433590
Rent Control for Homeowners? Acquisition-Value Assessments and Housing Costs
Strickland, J. M., & Overstreet, D. (2025). Public Finance Review, 53(3), 267–295. doi:10.1177/10911421231214886
The Elusive Economic Blessings of Tithing: Mormon Temples and County Poverty
Overstreet, D. (2024). Journal of Economics, Theology and Religion, 4(1), 40–58.
Can Local Government Mergers Reduce Costs When Capital Expenditures Are Low? Evidence from Court Mergers
Mughan, S., & Overstreet, D. (2024). Urban Affairs Review, 60(3), 892–922. doi:10.1177/10780874231209908
The Impact of Government Form on Resource Allocation in Local Government: Evidence from Municipal Court Closures
Mughan, S., & Overstreet, D. (2023). Public Budgeting & Finance, 43(2), 3–26.
Is Minimum Wage an Effective Anti-Poverty Tool?
Overstreet, D. (2021). Journal of Poverty, 25(5), 453–464.
The Negative Impact of Barriers to Entry on Income Inequality
Overstreet, D. (2020). Economic Affairs, 40(3), 344–357.
The Effect of Minimum Wage on Per Capita Income in Arizona: An Empirical Analysis
Overstreet, D. (2019). Poverty & Public Policy, 11(1–2), 156–168.
Book Chapters
Exploring the Interplay of Taxation and Regulation in Institutional Arrangements
Overstreet, D. (2023). In Knowledge and Entrepreneurship in Public Policy (Chapter 7). Lexington Books.
Working Paper
Preserving Policy Through Narrative Transformation: A Computational Analysis of Mormon Tithing Discourse, 1850–2024
How do institutions keep a costly requirement in place for 175 years without changing it? Using large language models and fine-tuned DistilBERT classifiers on 4,002 general conference passages, I measure three rhetorical dimensions of Mormon tithing discourse — commandment versus opportunity, fear versus love, and material versus spiritual emphasis — to test Armand Mauss's optimum tension theory.
Findings. Rhetoric cycles between authoritarian retrenchment and assimilationist appeal, tracking financial crises, federal persecution, and economic downturns. Institutions can preserve demanding practices through coordinated narrative evolution rather than policy change.
Interactive figures
Work in Progress
- Unemployment insurance trust fund solvency under federal policy change
- The effect of income disregard changes on state trust funds
- Regional patterns in policy diffusion across local governments
Tools & Dashboards
Interactive applications that put policy and public finance data in front of the people who need it, without requiring them to write code.
R Shiny Applications
KonFound-It! Sensitivity Analysis
Quantifies how robust a causal inference is to potential confounding, so researchers can see how much unmeasured bias it would take to overturn a finding.
LaunchWhat Works Clearinghouse Sensitivity Benchmarks
Sensitivity analysis benchmarks built for education policy evaluation, calibrated against the What Works Clearinghouse evidence base.
LaunchCensus Data Explorer
Search and compare Census economic and demographic indicators across states, counties, and cities.
LaunchSNAP Program Dashboard
Explore Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation and spending by state and county, with trend and policy comparison views.
LaunchData Dashboards
Arizona Medicaid Dashboard
Enrollment, eligibility, and expansion figures for Arizona's Medicaid program, assembled into a single annotated view.
Snapshot · data through June 2025
Open dashboardThe Business Pulse
A read on small business conditions built from the Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey, covering performance, supply chains, hiring, and AI adoption.
Snapshot · data through September 2025
Open dashboardWhat I Build
- Causal inference and sensitivity analysis tools
- Interactive visualization and reporting dashboards
- Policy simulation and scenario modeling
- Automated data pipelines against public data sources
- Plain-language interfaces for complex statistical methods
Collaboration
I take on consulting and collaborative projects that build analytical capacity for research and policy work — from a single figure to a full application.
The best way to reach me is via LinkedIn.
Writing
PoliMetrics is my newsletter on public finance and policy. Each post starts from original data analysis rather than commentary.
Latest from PoliMetrics
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What it covers
Public Finance
Trust funds, budgets, and fiscal sustainability
Fiscal Federalism
How money and authority move between governments
Program Data
What administrative data reveals about policy in practice
Methods
Econometric approaches, explained plainly
Overstreet Classic
Competition Dashboard
Gurgitation Trends
Performance Analytics
Jaw Capacity Analysis
Total Digestive Output
| Competitor | Battles | Personal Ceiling | Jaw Average | Career Consumption | Digestive Evolution |
|---|
Records & Achievements
Championship History
| Season | Champion | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Co-Champions Jordan C & Jordan O | 9.0 | Hot Dog |
| 2024 | Jordan C | 8.5 | Hot Dog |
| 2023 | Jordan C | 7.5 | Hot Dog |
Personal Records
| Competitor | Personal Best | Season |
|---|
Competition History
The Birth of a Gurgitator Dynasty
The inaugural competition on July 16th established the foundation for the annual championship. Jordan C took the first Mustard Belt with 7.5 hot dogs, demonstrating superior jaw mechanics and esophageal control. Nine family members participated in what would become a legendary tradition of digestive dominance.
The Solomon Method Emerges
July 14th brought heightened competition as jaw capacity standards rose across the board. Jordan C successfully defended his Mustard Belt with 8.5 hotdogs, but Jordan O emerged as a serious threat with 8.0, showing remarkable improvement in both technique and gastric expansion. The competitive eating landscape was evolving.
The Great Tie: A Gurgitator's Dream
June 29th delivered the most competitive championship to date. In an unprecedented finish worthy of Coney Island, Jordan C and Jordan O both achieved 9.0 hot dogs, resulting in the first co-Mustard Belt holders in competition history. Zero reversals were recorded, making this the cleanest and most professional competition yet. The addition of rookie competitors Dean and Sammy expanded the field to championship-level depth.